Ocena możliwości rozwoju polsko-czeskich obrotów towarowych produktami przemysłu chemicznego na podstawie modelu handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego

The major research objective of this work is to evaluate the possibility of the development of the Polish-Czech trade turnover in the field of chemical industry products on the basis of an intra-industry trade model. Intra-industry trade is a parallel import and export of similar goods originating from the same branches (industries). It is now the dominant form of exchange in developed economies.

The essential part of the work was performed with the application of econometric models for panel data, empirical verification of the factors (both microeconomic and macroeconomic) determining Poland’s intra-industry trade in chemical industry products. As follows from the research done, intra-industry trade in Poland’s foreign trade in chemical products is determined by a set of numerous and different factors. Three microeconomic factors and eleven macroeconomic determinants proved to be statistically significant. Among the microeconomic factors ‘the degree of concentration of the chemical industry’ affects the development of intra-industry trade most. In the set of macroeconomic factors, the greatest impact on the development of intra-trade exchange is exerted by the distance that separates Poland from its trading partners and the level of the so-called commercial freedom in countries that are trading partners. The research conducted shows that the direction of the impact of all identified determinants on the development of intra-industry turnover is consistent with the predictions of the theory.

The model for macroeconomic factors relating to the characteristics of the economies participating in the exchange was used to identify the groups of products within the scope in which there is potential for the development of exchange in the Polish-Czech trade turnover. The evaluation of the possibility of the development of mutual trade in individual product groups was made by developing a ranking of product groups separately for Poland and for the Czech Republic. The ranking was constructed based on a synthetic index, which was designated by the application of the diagnostic features (trade volume and the intensity of intra-industry trade in various commodity groups) standardized with the zero unitarisation method.

The study has confirmed that the mutual trade turnover between Poland and the Czech Republic has a significant potential for the development of intra-industry trade exchange. The difference between the theoretical and the empirical value of the intra-industry trade index in the Polish-Czech turnover of chemical industry products is significant  – it reaches approximately 12 percentage points.